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Nifty Prediction for 18th July 2024. Nifty Expiry Analysis
Nifty reached a record high but may pause due to a rapid 4.25% rally in just one month. Some sectors outperformed while Pharma and Energy declined. Technical analysis suggests a potential dip to 24,400-24,300 levels as FIIs are cautious, and India VIX signals fear. Support and Resistance levels for 18th July are 24,400-24,900.
On the previous trading day, Nifty made a new all-time high of 24,661 after opening and ending the day flat, forming another Spinning Top candlestick, representing indecision for future moves.
Looking at the bigger picture, Nifty is likely to take a pause from this rally as it rallied more than 4.25% in one month, equivalent to a gain of 1030 points which is crazy, and this takes the MMI index level over 74 (Extreme Greed) which is concerning – and this suggests that the market is likely to turn bearish in the near term.
Sectoral Performace: On the last trading day, all the Benchmark indices traded sideways including Nifty, Bank Nifty, Sensex, and FinNifty – but some sectors are trading ahead of the Market including Nifty Realty, FMCG, and IT sector as they were up by 1.66%, 0.96%, and 0.59% respectively. On the flip side, Nifty Pharma fell 0.38% followed by Nifty Energy which fell a minor 0.23 percent.
Looking at the Nifty 50 Stocks,
Top Gainers: Coal India, BPCL, HUL, Tata Consumer, Airtel
Top Losers: Shriram Finance, Dr Reddy’s Lab, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Ultratech Cement, NTPC
Also Read: 7 Best Solar Energy Stocks in India for 2024. CAGR Growth of 30%
Nifty50 Prediction for 18th July 2024
On the technical chart, Nifty again formed a Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern, which again put the traders in the dilemma of whether the market will go up or down in the next session.
Anyway, if you observe the Patterns closely, then Nifty has formed an Ascending Channel Pattern and currently, it is trading at the upper trendline of that pattern, which somewhere indicates that the market will fall on Thursday taking it toward the 24,400 – 24,300 level – assuming that the market will remain to trade following the Channel.
But firstly, it has to deal with the 24,500 level if looking to fall because tomorrow is the weekly expiry of the Nifty50, and put writers have dominated the 24,500 level which indicates that the Market may see difficulty going below this level. But, once this level is breached, then we might see high volatility in the market and the Nifty may slip to the lower support level at 24,400 or 24,300 in no time.
A Look at the FIIs Data and Technical Indicators
Firstly, FIIs are still the net buyers with shares bought on Tuesday worth Rs.1271 Cr, but in the Index Futures, they turned bearish on the previous day, indicating a lack of confidence among the big players, and the OI in the Index Futures remains stable.
Technical Indicators like PCR have fallen a little bit compared to the previous day, but are still above 1 which is a good sign for the market, but the RSI is still in the overbought zone at 74.45, and the MACD remains flat on Tuesday.
India VIX has also risen a little bit in the last week, which again signals fear among investors, and traders are advised to not take any fresh positions.
What to Expect from Nifty on 18th July 2024
So, on Thursday, 18th July 2024, the Nifty is likely to fall in my opinion, and may open a gap down on Thursday, but first Nifty needs to cross the 24,500 level to confirm any bearish move in the market, till then once can trade based on Support and Resistance.
And, once it crosses the 24,500 level and sustains below and the volatility starts to rise, then the Nifty may slip toward the 24,400 and 24,300 levels on the expiry day.
But what if the Nifty stays above 24,600 – then we need to wait for the market to show any movement, and if it tries to go upwards then in my opinion it might be stopped at the 24,700 level.
Also, keep in mind that tomorrow is the weekly Expiry of the Nifty50 and it may trade sideways for the whole day.
“Here are the trading levels for Nifty – 24,400- 24,900“
Nifty Put and Call Open Interest Data
| Put OI (Open Interest) | Call OI (Open Interest) |
|---|---|
| 24,000 (81.4L) | 25,000 (1.16Cr) |
| 24,500 (7.018L) | 24,700 (69.29L) |
| 24,300 (64.55L) | 24,900 (64.49L) |
Nifty50 Support and Resistance for 18th July 2024
| Nifty Support Levels | Nifty Resistance Levels |
|---|---|
| 24,500 | 24,700 |
| 24,400 | 24,900 |
| 24,300 | 25,000 |
Note:- For the Most Accurate Data you can revisit this Page after 11:00 AM (during Trading hours), so we can update the Trade Setup after analyzing the Market.
Happy Trading 🙂
